| dc.description.abstract | The Ria Formosa Nature Park in southern Portugal attracts thousands of tourists every year for its natural beauty and rich ecosystems. The saltwater lagoon and its sandy barrier islands form a unique landscape, which shelters the Algarve’s capital Faro. But what shelters the communities living on the barrier islands themselves?
This paper aims to analyse what it means for rural coastal communities to be resilient, as demonstrated by the island community Farol and investigates the trends, which may lead to its future challenges. To connect various spatial and temporal scales, this study utilises both the hourglass method and iterative design thinking. Meaning, the research begins at the level of the Ria Formosa Nature Park, then zooms to a specific island (Culatra) and one of the communities on it (Farol). It then invents five future scenarios to explore growing threats and possible changes. While presented in a linear fashion, the scenarios were built and revised multiple times to increase their robustness, clarity and cohesion.
The composition of five future scenarios for the Farol community, allows contemporary environmental, social, and economic trends to be continued and attenuated. Each scenario shows potential developments and responses to trends visible today. The implications to resilience and possible alleviation strategies are suggested. The scenarios are then evaluated through comparisons of each other and their global templates.
The scenarios aren’t intended as five best-case development plans, but rather reflections of future threats to resilience, which we can observe and anticipate today. Each situation has different challenges and a range of options to mitigate negative impacts. They can be used to inspire adaptation planning and encourage active steering by stakeholders towards the most desirable future. | |
