Risiko i boligprosjekter i mellomstore byer fra eiendomsutviklers perspektiv : en undersøkelse i Tønsberg og Hamar kommune

Abstract

This master’s thesis assigns risk in housing projects from the regulatory phase until the project is completed. It is a case study with six different commercial real estate developers, based in two middle-sized cities in Norway. The aim of the thesis is to find the unexpected events and risk factors in real estate development. It also seek to find out the most critical risk factors.

The problem the assignment has based on is: «What does not go as expected in housing projects in medium-sized cities from the perspective of real estate developers»?

In addition, sub-problems have been identified that investigate the following risk groups; regulatory risk, development risk, market risk, institutional risk, project-internal risk, media and press group risk and financing risk.

The study shows that risk of planning procedure is the main risk in real estate development in Norway. In the view of developers, this is largely due to political and administrative unpredictability. Other risk factors is also important.

Changes in laws and regulations and challenges related to the choice of entrepreneurs have caused some discrepancies, but have not been among the more prominent risk groups. Developers primarily choose contracts that gives the contractor full contractual obligation. The developer who has chosen a shared contract has faced more challenges than the others in this area. Notes from neighbors are something developers are aware of that will come and this has occurred in most of the projects. Financing risk stands out as the risk group all developers have experienced as predictable in the projects in the sample.

The survey that is done correspond well with previous surveys from major cities that we have compared to the task. Surveys also show that much of what does not go as expected in housing projects in medium-sized cities in Norway is the same as experienced internationally.

Denne mastergradsoppgaven kartlegger risiko i boligprosjekter fra reguleringsfasen til prosjektet er ferdigstilt. Målet med arbeidet har vært å finne ut om det er noen uventede hendelser som dukker opp oftere enn andre, og hvilke risikofaktorer som er de mest kritiske. For å få til dette har vi gjennomført en kvalitativ undersøkelse med tre eiendomsutviklere basert i Hamar, og tre i Tønsberg. Utviklerne har sagt seg villig til å stille opp uten å bli anonymisert. Dette har gitt oss mulighet til å kunne beskrive hvert case best mulig. Problemstillingen oppgaven har tatt utgangspunkt i er: “Hva er det som ikke går som forventet i boligprosjekter i mellomstore byer sett fra eiendomsutviklers perspektiv?”