An analysis of geopolitical disruptions and foreign policy change in the Norwegian-Russian relationship
Master thesis
Permanent lenke
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/3148246Utgivelsesdato
2024Metadata
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- Master’s theses (LandSam) [1166]
Sammendrag
The overarching argument after the Cold War was that stability, prosperity and cooperation would be the defining nature of the European security landscape and prevent inter-state wars from happening. This thesis argue that this view was abruptly questioned after the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014. Western perceptions of Russia took a sharp U-turn and what was once described as a valuable partner, was now portrayed as aggressive and expansionist. After the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the cleavages between the West and Russia were absolute. Once a prosperous partnership had been replaced by fear and uncertainty. To explain the complex relationships in the system and Norwegian security perspectives. The thesis explores and analyse the Fokus documents, more specifically the threat assessments of the Norwegian Intelligence Service. The findings that emerge from these documents contribute to the understanding of how a changing Russian world view serve as drivers of change with the intention of a new multipolar world order. By utilizing IR theories and concepts, the thesis explores the fundamental structure of the international system, while arguing that balance of power theory enhances the understanding of motivations behind change. In this thesis the security dilemma explores how the cleavages between the West and Russia, create uncertainty and security deficits through an uncontrollable spiral. The thesis seeks to understand, portray and discuss the changes in Norwegian security, and its perception towards Russia and external developments in the near abroad. The use of foreign policy theory and the concept of subjective security explore the motivations behind dominant security narratives that influence changes in Norwegian foreign policy. Through the analysis and discussion of Fokus documents, the thesis argues that developments, conflicting world views and hostile intentions between the West and Russia has shaped and influence the social and interconnected relationship between Norway and Russia. Despite cleavages and conflicting world views, both Norway and Russia maintain the idea of a stable and low-tension Arctic. The thesis argues that understanding and clear intentions are the only measures left to ensure that the relations between Russia and the West, remain cold.