The Anatolian Gambit: Turkey’s Quest for Strategic Autonomy

Abstract

This thesis research was conducted during an Erasmus exchange at the Turkish National Police Academy. The thesis investigates Turkey's foreign policy over the last two decades, where the last decade has been marked by a quest for strategic autonomy. By using the theoretical frameworks of constructivism and neoclassical realism, this thesis attempts to dissect what Turkey's quest for strategic autonomy entails. The thesis finds four takeaways central to Turkey's strategic autonomy. These are interest and transaction-based foreign policy, military assertiveness, energy and energy-security, and the internalization of strategic autonomy evidenced by the takeaways and illuminated by Turkey's role in the Russia-Ukraine war.

The AK Party has over the last two decades went from a pro-western orientation towards a more independent and assertive foreign policy guided by a Neo-Ottoman ideology and authoritarian nature. Turkey's strategic autonomy shows an identity shift and adaptation to a multipolar world order, analysed through a blend of realist and constructivist theory. While the concept of strategic autonomy seem like a concept of the realist school, the thesis highlights the importance of identity in shaping strategic autonomy, necessitating a contextual understanding of the concept.

The thesis aims to contribute to the academic discourse on strategic autonomy by offering an in-depth analysis of Turkey's foreign policy evolution the last two decades under the AK party's rule. The thesis highlights the four aforementioned interdependent critical takeaways in understanding Turkey's strategic autonomy.

The study argues Turkey's quest for strategic autonomy is a multifaceted approach reflecting a broader trend among middle powers in adapting to a multipolar world order. Importantly, the thesis makes sure to address the similarities and differences between EU's and Turkey's strategic autonomy. This highlights the importance of further research on how Turkey and other middle powers will use strategic autonomy moving forward. For future recommendations the thesis asks what implications strategic autonomy have on democracy and authoritarianism.