Offense/defense balance and Kashmir issue between India and Pakistan

Abstract

This study is conducted to determine the impact of Offense/defense balance (ODB) on the conflict between India and Pakistan. The dissertation consists of four different cases: the 1962 War between India and China, the 1971 Indo-Pak War, nuclear experiments by India and Pakistan in 1998 and the Kargil war of 1999. Two cases selected when war did break out and the other two cases when the situation was close to war, but the war did not break out. The dependent variable of the study is the outbreak of war and the independent variable is ODB. To measure ODB, the author adopted two methods that are subjective measure and objective measure. An objective measure is calculated using the Composite Index of National Capability (CINC) data, whereas subjective is analyzed by comparing the official’s statements passed by Pakistani and Indian officials before, during and after the war. The results of the study show that during the war of 1962 between China and India, Pakistan did not consider ODB, even though it was a golden chance for Pakistan to attack India. Instead, Pakistan favored peace in the region and refrained from attacking India. In 1971 war, Kashmir conflict was not the primary cause of war but indirectly Kashmir was playing a key role in the tension between Pakistan and India. In the case of 1998, India did the nuclear test just to limit the Pakistan role in the Kashmir. In response, Pakistan conducted nuclear tests of its own. Pakistan’s atomic experiments reflect that Pakistan was considering ODB favoring the defense. In the case of the 1999 Kargil War, the role of ODB was limited because the Kargil war was due to the secret operation of Pakistan paramilitary forces. Kashmir seems to be the bone of contention between India and Pakistan. The offense/defense balance has some explanatory power when it comes to the India-Pakistan relationship. However, there are also many other important factors.