Deterministic modeling of the transmission dynamics of intramammary infections

Abstract

We present a novel deterministic modelling approach that describes the transmission dynamics of intramammary infections (IMI) caused by Corynebacterium spp. (Corynebacterium species) in a US dairy herd. Longitudinal, quantitative, dynamic models are likely to be valuable for predicting infections outbreak risk, quantify the effectiveness of response tactics and performing response planning. In this paper, we established an approach based on SIS compartmental model subject on appropriate unknown parameters that we estimated within lactation month as time variable. Firstly, we stratified the days of study (calendar days) in several strata. Secondly, we modelled the transmission of Corynebacterium spp. by using lactation month (months since last calving) as time variable within each of the separate strata. We estimated the unknown parameters of the model by using a deterministic approach, based on real data fitting procedure. The real data, from which the parameters of the model are estimated, were obtained in a field trial conducted in a New York dairy herd (US).