Empirisk analyse av bransjespesifikke risikofaktorers påvirkningsgrad i meravkastning til norske oppdrettsselskap

Abstract

As a result of an increased demand and technological development, the salmon farming industry has experienced a strong growth over many decades. In company with the fishery industry the salmon farming industry has contributed to make Oslo stock exchange to one of the biggest marketplaces in the seafood sector. This has contributed to that the companies who operate in the industry has experienced a big growth in value, especially in the period of the last five years when the prices on salmon have been high and the currency exchange rate has been in favor of the Norwegian salmon farming companies. This growth has newly started the discussion about ascribing an additional taxation to the industry due to its profitability.

In this thesis an examination has been performed to study if excess return in salmon companies on the Oslo stock exchange can be explained by industry specific risk factors. This has been done by including chosen factors which has an expected significance on the industry and included them as variables in an regression model where we include the salmon companies excess return over the market as the dependent variable.

From the results from the analysis it can be seen that none of the industry specific risk factors included is significance in all of the companies. It is a big difference in which of the included risk factors who is significance in describing the changes in excess return from company to company. To some of the risk factors who are included with a lagged value also, the lagged value often comes as more significant. This can mean that it is a delay in the information in the market which may been explained by the due date to report monthly biomass stats which is set to the 7th. the following month.

It emerges from this analysis that the industry specific risk factors has a small impact on the salmon farming companies excess return over the market. This support the statement that the companies achieves an extra profit due to operating in an industry where growth and entry barriers is strongly regulated in the form for concessions, at it makes is hard to establish as a new competitor.

Som følge av en økt etterspørsel og teknologisk utvikling har oppdrettsnæringen hatt en sterk vekst i flere tiår. Sammen med fiskerinæringen har oppdrettsbransjen bidratt til å gjøre Oslo Børs til en av de viktigste markedsplassene for sjømatsektoren. Dette har bidratt til at selskapene som operer i bransjen har hatt en stor verdiøkning, spesielt gjennom en periode på de siste fem årene hvor det har vært høye laksepriser og gunstig valutakurser for de norske oppdrettsselskapene. Denne veksten har nylig gitt tilløp for diskusjonen om bransjen skal tillegges en grunnrenteskatt knyttet til sin lønnsomhet. I denne oppgaven har det det blitt undersøkt om bransjespesifikke risikofaktorer er forklarende på verdiøkningen til oppdrettsselskapene ved å inkludere utvalgte risikofaktorer som variabler i en regresjonsmodell hvor meravkastningen aksjekursene til oppdrettsselskapene har over markedet er den avhengige variabelen.