The flower markets : five essays on flower prices 1993-2008
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- Doctoral theses (HH) 
The thesis consists of an introduction and five independent, but related essays. The unifying theme is the challenge of production and marketing of cut flowers under price uncertainty. Essay I gives an overview of international flower production, consumption and trade, with a special focus on the Dutch flower auctions. Essay II presents shortterm price forecasting models that can be applied in the production and marketing of cut flowers. The results indicate that combining seasonal regularities and autoregressive price patterns, a substantial part of the short-term price variability can be explained. Essay III is a follow-up on essay II using an alternative methodological approach, i.e. partial least squares (PLS) regression. The results show that the PLS model can be recommended as a successful forecasting method compared to more standard forecasting methods. In essay IV price-quantity relationships and issues related to consumer behaviour are analyzed, estimating a demand system. The results suggest that a potential for strategic marketing or market timing exists. Finally, Essay V is addressing price risk, suggesting that flower producers take a portfolio approach to reduce risk. The results show that price risk can be substantially reduced through some quite simple diversification strategies.