dc.contributor.author Kawuma Menya, Christine dc.date.accessioned 2011-11-01T08:27:38Z dc.date.available 2011-11-01T08:27:38Z dc.date.issued 2011-11-01 dc.identifier.uri http://hdl.handle.net/11250/187225 dc.description Used fixed effects model to analyse the impact of climate change on subsistence crop net revenue in Ethiopia. no_NO dc.description.abstract The study uses a multivariate regression model to investigate how climate change will affect crop revenue in Ethiopia. A total of 425 subsistence farmers from 17 sub-districts in Tigray region were interviewed in six survey rounds from 1997 to 2010 to form a panel. no_NO Analysis involved regressing net revenue per unit area on climate (rainfall), soil and household characteristics to assess the significance of their impact on net revenue per unit area. Our results indicated that marginally increasing precipitation in the pre-growth season increased revenue by US$0.04/ha while marginally increasing main season precipitation increased revenue by US$0.02/ha. Variation of monthly precipitation from the mean in the production year had no effect on net revenue and the drought in 2002 reduced net crop revenue by 52%. The study went ahead to examine the economic implication of climate change by assessing how net revenue changes with five uniform climate change scenarios. The climate scenarios used include reducing precipitation by 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% and 25%. The last two scenarios represent drought conditions. A 5% and 10% reduction in average precipitation was inferred to reduce average net revenue by 3% and 6% respectively. The 15% decline in rainfall is predicted to reduce net revenue by 10% while the two drought conditions cause a 13% and 16% fall in net revenue. In general, the results indicate that decreasing precipitation is damaging to crop productivity in Tigray region. In spite of the impacts being relatively modest, we cannot disregard the damage that can result from droughts since their frequency is expected to increase in semi-arid areas because of climate change. dc.language.iso eng no_NO dc.subject climate change no_NO dc.subject crop revenue no_NO dc.subject rainfall no_NO dc.subject farmers no_NO dc.subject economics no_NO dc.subject Tigray no_NO dc.subject Ethiopia no_NO dc.title Rainfall variation due to climate change : an intertemporal investigation into its impact on susbsistence crop net revenue no_NO dc.type Master thesis no_NO dc.subject.nsi VDP::Social science: 200::Economics: 210 no_NO dc.subject.nsi VDP::Agriculture and fishery disciplines: 900::Agriculture disciplines: 910::Plant breeding, horticulture, plant protection, plant pathology: 911 no_NO dc.source.pagenumber 87 no_NO
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