+------------------------------------------------------------+ | CJ_SIM_MODEL: NO1/DK1 Market equilibrium simulation model | +------------------------------------------------------------+ ================================================== === Simulation parameters === ================================================== EU ETS Carbon price (EUR/t): 20.00 Brent oil price (EUR/b)) : 60.00 Coal price (EUR/t) : 60.00 Norwegian IPI : 100 Reservoir capacity (TWh) : 55.630 Transmission capacity (MW) : 4000 ================================================== === Estimated parameters === ================================================== -------------------------------------------------- -- NO1 production functions -- -------------------------------------------------- ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ Hour| const | prod | rel_res | oilp | co2p | co2d | trend | tsin | tcos | ipi | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1 : -8.1906 | 0.3342 | -2.9211 | 1.5971 | 0.2312 | -0.8046 | -0.0007 | 0.2495 | 0.2828 | 0.8328 | 2 : -9.2731 | 0.4303 | -3.0926 | 1.6636 | 0.2367 | -0.8473 | -0.0008 | 0.2586 | 0.2824 | 0.8389 | 3 : -10.1544 | 0.5067 | -3.2268 | 1.7113 | 0.2379 | -0.8663 | -0.0008 | 0.2664 | 0.2830 | 0.8514 | 4 : -10.7234 | 0.5655 | -3.3411 | 1.7363 | 0.2403 | -0.8916 | -0.0008 | 0.2735 | 0.2874 | 0.8458 | 5 : -10.8040 | 0.5231 | -3.3271 | 1.7966 | 0.2108 | -0.8154 | -0.0008 | 0.2771 | 0.3004 | 0.9030 | 6 : -9.9451 | 0.4559 | -3.2281 | 1.7138 | 0.2199 | -0.8226 | -0.0008 | 0.2711 | 0.2994 | 0.9062 | 7 : -9.4669 | 0.4506 | -3.1469 | 1.6678 | 0.2006 | -0.7485 | -0.0008 | 0.2636 | 0.2937 | 0.8343 | 8 : -8.3987 | 0.3703 | -2.9080 | 1.5954 | 0.1722 | -0.6104 | -0.0007 | 0.2589 | 0.2962 | 0.7974 | 9 : -8.2611 | 0.3780 | -2.7969 | 1.5507 | 0.1520 | -0.5184 | -0.0007 | 0.2562 | 0.2867 | 0.7872 | 10 : -7.7727 | 0.3431 | -2.7467 | 1.5080 | 0.1655 | -0.5589 | -0.0007 | 0.2495 | 0.2799 | 0.7763 | 11 : -7.1537 | 0.2996 | -2.7063 | 1.4636 | 0.1915 | -0.6291 | -0.0007 | 0.2435 | 0.2796 | 0.7560 | 12 : -6.6934 | 0.2522 | -2.6956 | 1.4491 | 0.2134 | -0.6897 | -0.0007 | 0.2426 | 0.2865 | 0.7595 | 13 : -6.6247 | 0.2414 | -2.6948 | 1.4520 | 0.2211 | -0.7147 | -0.0007 | 0.2417 | 0.2874 | 0.7630 | 14 : -6.7828 | 0.2573 | -2.7171 | 1.4537 | 0.2315 | -0.7493 | -0.0007 | 0.2403 | 0.2873 | 0.7645 | 15 : -6.8001 | 0.2577 | -2.7352 | 1.4719 | 0.2388 | -0.7750 | -0.0007 | 0.2418 | 0.2911 | 0.7548 | 16 : -6.8125 | 0.2649 | -2.7577 | 1.4532 | 0.2524 | -0.8115 | -0.0007 | 0.2417 | 0.2959 | 0.7573 | 17 : -6.7122 | 0.2667 | -2.7615 | 1.4315 | 0.2617 | -0.8300 | -0.0007 | 0.2412 | 0.3006 | 0.7489 | 18 : -6.5649 | 0.2545 | -2.7496 | 1.4081 | 0.2443 | -0.7705 | -0.0007 | 0.2438 | 0.3052 | 0.7594 | 19 : -6.5906 | 0.2156 | -2.7119 | 1.4742 | 0.1910 | -0.6217 | -0.0007 | 0.2480 | 0.3078 | 0.7964 | 20 : -6.5754 | 0.1883 | -2.6992 | 1.5044 | 0.1892 | -0.6229 | -0.0007 | 0.2473 | 0.3082 | 0.8254 | 21 : -6.4344 | 0.1730 | -2.6978 | 1.5033 | 0.2102 | -0.6883 | -0.0007 | 0.2466 | 0.3066 | 0.8247 | 22 : -6.3843 | 0.1828 | -2.7039 | 1.4971 | 0.2165 | -0.7088 | -0.0007 | 0.2471 | 0.3016 | 0.7984 | 23 : -6.7069 | 0.1876 | -2.7436 | 1.5231 | 0.2283 | -0.7495 | -0.0007 | 0.2523 | 0.3018 | 0.8443 | 24 : -8.0383 | 0.3001 | -2.8834 | 1.5915 | 0.2357 | -0.8108 | -0.0007 | 0.2547 | 0.2931 | 0.8700 | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ -------------------------------------------------- -- NO1 consumption functions -- -------------------------------------------------- ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ Hour| const | price | hdegree | hdegre2 | dsumm | dwkday | oilp | trend | tsin | tcos | ipi | dlength | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1 : 8.1180 | -0.0453 | -0.0917 | 0.0539 | -0.0022 | 0.0070 | 0.1732 | -0.0001 | 0.0712 | 0.1046 | 0.1294 | -0.0675 | 2 : 8.0208 | -0.0446 | -0.1035 | 0.0567 | -0.0014 | 0.0077 | 0.1820 | -0.0001 | 0.0691 | 0.1346 | 0.1206 | -0.0325 | 3 : 7.9452 | -0.0422 | -0.1093 | 0.0576 | -0.0035 | 0.0111 | 0.1837 | -0.0001 | 0.0667 | 0.1615 | 0.1120 | 0.0041 | 4 : 7.8707 | -0.0419 | -0.1228 | 0.0600 | -0.0048 | 0.0177 | 0.1845 | -0.0001 | 0.0659 | 0.1857 | 0.1119 | 0.0358 | 5 : 7.7803 | -0.0433 | -0.1262 | 0.0604 | -0.0116 | 0.0306 | 0.1937 | -0.0001 | 0.0596 | 0.2349 | 0.0894 | 0.1028 | 6 : 7.4102 | -0.0489 | -0.1220 | 0.0594 | -0.0116 | 0.0587 | 0.2081 | -0.0001 | 0.0613 | 0.2411 | 0.1663 | 0.1014 | 7 : 7.2321 | -0.0464 | -0.0991 | 0.0540 | -0.0192 | 0.1296 | 0.1995 | -0.0001 | 0.0658 | 0.2169 | 0.2274 | 0.0647 | 8 : 7.3351 | -0.0449 | -0.0730 | 0.0485 | -0.0412 | 0.2098 | 0.1901 | -0.0001 | 0.0682 | 0.1677 | 0.2468 | 0.0027 | 9 : 7.6297 | -0.0468 | -0.0689 | 0.0482 | -0.0466 | 0.2043 | 0.1848 | -0.0001 | 0.0714 | 0.1270 | 0.2220 | -0.0455 | 10 : 7.8436 | -0.0471 | -0.0609 | 0.0477 | -0.0429 | 0.1579 | 0.1797 | -0.0001 | 0.0650 | 0.1178 | 0.1773 | -0.0291 | 11 : 8.0428 | -0.0458 | -0.0558 | 0.0466 | -0.0373 | 0.1243 | 0.1645 | -0.0001 | 0.0615 | 0.1037 | 0.1564 | -0.0424 | 12 : 8.1422 | -0.0461 | -0.0502 | 0.0457 | -0.0380 | 0.1082 | 0.1602 | -0.0001 | 0.0600 | 0.0920 | 0.1480 | -0.0578 | 13 : 8.1427 | -0.0489 | -0.0480 | 0.0454 | -0.0389 | 0.1076 | 0.1651 | -0.0001 | 0.0608 | 0.0828 | 0.1534 | -0.0727 | 14 : 8.1643 | -0.0484 | -0.0418 | 0.0437 | -0.0405 | 0.1124 | 0.1621 | -0.0001 | 0.0599 | 0.0734 | 0.1569 | -0.0894 | 15 : 8.1766 | -0.0466 | -0.0389 | 0.0429 | -0.0425 | 0.1149 | 0.1657 | -0.0001 | 0.0614 | 0.0695 | 0.1558 | -0.1022 | 16 : 8.2812 | -0.0448 | -0.0328 | 0.0411 | -0.0400 | 0.1100 | 0.1575 | -0.0001 | 0.0634 | 0.0513 | 0.1626 | -0.1514 | 17 : 8.3430 | -0.0466 | -0.0297 | 0.0405 | -0.0381 | 0.1020 | 0.1649 | -0.0001 | 0.0653 | 0.0325 | 0.1771 | -0.2096 | 18 : 8.1532 | -0.0450 | -0.0369 | 0.0428 | -0.0319 | 0.0875 | 0.1549 | -0.0001 | 0.0583 | 0.0842 | 0.1789 | -0.1208 | 19 : 7.8591 | -0.0478 | -0.0386 | 0.0442 | -0.0286 | 0.0750 | 0.1594 | -0.0001 | 0.0471 | 0.1515 | 0.1702 | 0.0144 | 20 : 7.6882 | -0.0481 | -0.0337 | 0.0422 | -0.0290 | 0.0686 | 0.1619 | -0.0001 | 0.0397 | 0.1914 | 0.1592 | 0.0968 | 21 : 7.6348 | -0.0494 | -0.0300 | 0.0393 | -0.0338 | 0.0640 | 0.1743 | -0.0001 | 0.0419 | 0.1932 | 0.1578 | 0.1043 | 22 : 7.8965 | -0.0490 | -0.0335 | 0.0401 | -0.0410 | 0.0580 | 0.1828 | -0.0001 | 0.0476 | 0.1669 | 0.1122 | 0.0637 | 23 : 8.2165 | -0.0454 | -0.0500 | 0.0438 | -0.0308 | 0.0444 | 0.1733 | -0.0000 | 0.0555 | 0.1379 | 0.0663 | 0.0163 | 24 : 8.1998 | -0.0464 | -0.0735 | 0.0485 | -0.0058 | 0.0279 | 0.1738 | -0.0000 | 0.0705 | 0.0966 | 0.1126 | -0.0710 | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ -------------------------------------------------- -- DK1 production functions -- -------------------------------------------------- ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ Hour| const | prod | coalp | co2p | co2d | trend | tsin | tcos | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1 : -4.9213 | 0.9947 | 0.3857 | 0.4566 | -0.8224 | -0.0007 | -0.1195 | -0.3114 | 2 : -6.6574 | 1.1489 | 0.5881 | 0.4970 | -0.8532 | -0.0008 | -0.1111 | -0.3399 | 3 : -7.5355 | 1.2407 | 0.6618 | 0.4687 | -0.7039 | -0.0009 | -0.0661 | -0.3765 | 4 : -8.9552 | 1.4372 | 0.6781 | 0.4298 | -0.5293 | -0.0010 | -0.0739 | -0.4339 | 5 : -10.5965 | 1.6241 | 0.7580 | 0.4987 | -0.7385 | -0.0010 | -0.0987 | -0.4749 | 6 : -10.8401 | 1.5622 | 0.9018 | 0.4786 | -0.6962 | -0.0009 | -0.1111 | -0.4286 | 7 : -10.7858 | 1.5504 | 0.8056 | 0.3053 | -0.2711 | -0.0007 | -0.1708 | -0.4047 | 8 : -9.0874 | 1.2297 | 0.9138 | 0.2484 | -0.0244 | -0.0006 | -0.1925 | -0.2404 | 9 : -6.4315 | 0.9248 | 0.8158 | 0.2882 | -0.1713 | -0.0005 | -0.1307 | -0.1402 | 10 : -5.6301 | 0.8153 | 0.8323 | 0.3451 | -0.3093 | -0.0005 | -0.1390 | -0.1207 | 11 : -5.1647 | 0.7533 | 0.8288 | 0.3560 | -0.3084 | -0.0005 | -0.1604 | -0.1205 | 12 : -5.2733 | 0.7535 | 0.8708 | 0.3781 | -0.3246 | -0.0006 | -0.1802 | -0.1501 | 13 : -4.3155 | 0.6863 | 0.7494 | 0.4291 | -0.5384 | -0.0005 | -0.1694 | -0.1389 | 14 : -4.6257 | 0.7386 | 0.7263 | 0.4282 | -0.5486 | -0.0005 | -0.1695 | -0.1524 | 15 : -5.0206 | 0.8065 | 0.6915 | 0.3962 | -0.4678 | -0.0005 | -0.1772 | -0.1815 | 16 : -5.2807 | 0.8200 | 0.7419 | 0.3867 | -0.4245 | -0.0006 | -0.1920 | -0.1757 | 17 : -5.3329 | 0.8032 | 0.7893 | 0.4470 | -0.6241 | -0.0006 | -0.2077 | -0.1446 | 18 : -3.7206 | 0.6189 | 0.7323 | 0.4870 | -0.7881 | -0.0005 | -0.1832 | -0.0239 | 19 : -3.1509 | 0.5123 | 0.8106 | 0.4219 | -0.5415 | -0.0005 | -0.1731 | -0.0006 | 20 : -2.6527 | 0.4552 | 0.7899 | 0.4224 | -0.5366 | -0.0005 | -0.1862 | -0.0118 | 21 : -2.2104 | 0.4223 | 0.7474 | 0.4781 | -0.7158 | -0.0006 | -0.1717 | -0.0360 | 22 : -2.6464 | 0.4866 | 0.7441 | 0.4764 | -0.7185 | -0.0006 | -0.1380 | -0.0827 | 23 : -1.5719 | 0.3680 | 0.7018 | 0.5111 | -0.8472 | -0.0006 | -0.1060 | -0.0566 | 24 : -2.0504 | 0.5018 | 0.5854 | 0.4432 | -0.7114 | -0.0007 | -0.0667 | -0.1136 | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ -------------------------------------------------- -- DK1 consumption functions -- -------------------------------------------------- ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ Hour| const | hdegree | hdegre2 | dwkday | dksumm | trend | tsin | tcos | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1 : 7.4905 | -0.0711 | 0.0251 | 0.0964 | -0.0329 | 0.0000 | 0.0198 | 0.0352 | 2 : 7.4403 | -0.0765 | 0.0270 | 0.1096 | -0.0368 | 0.0000 | 0.0204 | 0.0351 | 3 : 7.4144 | -0.0794 | 0.0281 | 0.1246 | -0.0382 | 0.0000 | 0.0209 | 0.0351 | 4 : 7.3992 | -0.0840 | 0.0297 | 0.1391 | -0.0413 | 0.0000 | 0.0208 | 0.0349 | 5 : 7.3864 | -0.0800 | 0.0290 | 0.1601 | -0.0387 | 0.0000 | 0.0187 | 0.0425 | 6 : 7.4022 | -0.0837 | 0.0305 | 0.2105 | -0.0609 | 0.0000 | 0.0115 | 0.0525 | 7 : 7.4467 | -0.0699 | 0.0281 | 0.3236 | -0.0881 | 0.0000 | -0.0013 | 0.0621 | 8 : 7.5392 | -0.0523 | 0.0228 | 0.4151 | -0.0879 | 0.0000 | -0.0014 | 0.0717 | 9 : 7.6387 | -0.0450 | 0.0194 | 0.3831 | -0.0713 | 0.0000 | 0.0063 | 0.0685 | 10 : 7.6782 | -0.0428 | 0.0205 | 0.3304 | -0.0543 | 0.0000 | 0.0054 | 0.0537 | 11 : 7.6891 | -0.0377 | 0.0199 | 0.3255 | -0.0475 | 0.0000 | 0.0037 | 0.0451 | 12 : 7.6870 | -0.0365 | 0.0198 | 0.3186 | -0.0438 | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0419 | 13 : 7.6535 | -0.0328 | 0.0192 | 0.3094 | -0.0393 | 0.0000 | 0.0003 | 0.0377 | 14 : 7.6340 | -0.0326 | 0.0186 | 0.3315 | -0.0417 | 0.0000 | -0.0014 | 0.0383 | 15 : 7.6177 | -0.0332 | 0.0193 | 0.3178 | -0.0386 | 0.0000 | -0.0037 | 0.0428 | 16 : 7.6079 | -0.0365 | 0.0210 | 0.2756 | -0.0317 | 0.0000 | -0.0069 | 0.0567 | 17 : 7.6461 | -0.0370 | 0.0229 | 0.2320 | -0.0280 | 0.0000 | -0.0166 | 0.0858 | 18 : 7.7442 | -0.0373 | 0.0233 | 0.1964 | -0.0289 | 0.0000 | -0.0153 | 0.1062 | 19 : 7.7494 | -0.0396 | 0.0235 | 0.1656 | -0.0263 | 0.0000 | -0.0073 | 0.1038 | 20 : 7.6737 | -0.0353 | 0.0227 | 0.1700 | -0.0468 | 0.0000 | -0.0146 | 0.0881 | 21 : 7.6330 | -0.0400 | 0.0227 | 0.1601 | -0.0645 | 0.0000 | -0.0154 | 0.0696 | 22 : 7.6054 | -0.0395 | 0.0204 | 0.1544 | -0.0501 | 0.0000 | -0.0032 | 0.0576 | 23 : 7.5868 | -0.0539 | 0.0220 | 0.1401 | -0.0321 | 0.0000 | 0.0105 | 0.0406 | 24 : 7.5406 | -0.0683 | 0.0254 | 0.1176 | -0.0318 | 0.0000 | 0.0167 | 0.0311 | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ ================================================== === Baseline simulation summary === ================================================== ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key variable : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 50.0 50.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW): 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW): 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total NO1 production (TWh) : 85.56 73.66 87.89 93.40 81.50 94.10 100.53 88.98 98.94 Total NO1 consumption (TWh): 86.68 88.36 87.78 87.56 89.49 88.83 88.76 90.65 89.96 Total DK1 production (TWh) : 30.36 34.42 23.12 23.40 27.70 17.97 17.46 21.39 14.26 Total DK1 consumption (TWh): 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 Average SYS price (EUR/MWh): 40.97 48.53 28.41 31.84 36.69 20.14 23.82 28.31 14.73 Average NO1 price (EUR/MWh): 41.44 50.25 29.12 31.84 36.74 20.14 23.82 28.33 14.73 Average DK1 price (EUR/MWh): 40.24 45.48 27.04 31.84 36.55 20.14 23.82 28.25 14.73 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total net export (TWh) : -4.72 -13.58 -1.33 2.24 -6.86 3.83 8.17 -0.55 7.53 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 41.85 166.62 72.54 0.00 6.62 0.00 0.00 3.06 0.00 Total overflow (MWh) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.09 0.00 0.00 5.60 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.64 0.00 0.00 63.47 Final reserve level (TWh) : 34.94 29.96 50.68 35.44 30.47 50.73 36.66 31.34 50.73 Final reserve level (perc) : 62.81 53.86 91.11 63.71 54.77 91.19 65.90 56.34 91.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSx in NO1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CSx in DK1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Revenue hydro (mill EUR) : 3549.24 3829.23 2387.98 3095.17 3149.43 1931.32 2481.86 2613.29 1526.48 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR): 198.60 267.85 201.50 160.66 216.66 150.62 122.99 167.81 109.71 PSx thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : 151.14 194.70 96.85 85.97 111.79 46.26 51.22 72.18 25.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================== === Policy #1 simulation summary === ================================================== Transmission capacity (MW) : 4000 Wind production expansion factor: 20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key variable : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 50.0 50.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW): 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW): 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total NO1 production (TWh) : 85.56 73.66 87.89 93.40 81.50 94.10 100.53 88.98 98.94 Total NO1 consumption (TWh): 86.68 88.36 87.78 87.56 89.49 88.83 88.76 90.65 89.96 Total DK1 production (TWh) : 30.36 34.42 23.12 23.40 27.70 17.97 17.46 21.39 14.26 Total DK1 consumption (TWh): 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 Average SYS price (EUR/MWh): 40.97 48.53 28.41 31.84 36.69 20.14 23.82 28.31 14.73 Average NO1 price (EUR/MWh): 41.44 50.25 29.12 31.84 36.74 20.14 23.82 28.33 14.73 Average DK1 price (EUR/MWh): 40.24 45.48 27.04 31.84 36.55 20.14 23.82 28.25 14.73 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total net export (TWh) : -4.72 -13.58 -1.33 2.24 -6.86 3.83 8.17 -0.55 7.53 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 41.85 166.62 72.54 0.00 6.62 0.00 0.00 3.06 0.00 Total overflow (MWh) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.09 0.00 0.00 5.60 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.64 0.00 0.00 63.47 Final reserve level (TWh) : 34.94 29.96 50.68 35.44 30.47 50.73 36.66 31.34 50.73 Final reserve level (perc) : 62.81 53.86 91.11 63.71 54.77 91.19 65.90 56.34 91.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSx in NO1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CSx in DK1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Revenue hydro (mill EUR) : 3549.24 3829.23 2387.98 3095.17 3149.43 1931.32 2481.86 2613.29 1526.48 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR): 198.60 267.85 201.50 160.66 216.66 150.62 122.99 167.81 109.71 PSx thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : 151.14 194.70 96.85 85.97 111.79 46.26 51.22 72.18 25.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 6.110 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 85.558 : 85.123 : -0.436 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 86.683 : 86.752 : 0.068 DK1 production (TWh) : 30.356 : 30.861 : 0.504 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 40.967 : 40.370 : -0.598 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 41.437 : 40.862 : -0.576 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 40.240 : 39.575 : -0.665 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -4.723 : -5.227 : -0.504 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 41.853 : 44.976 : 3.123 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 34.941 : 35.376 : 0.436 Reservoir filling (perc) : 62.809 : 63.592 : 0.783 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 50.957 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 14.335 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -65.290 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 34.200 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -3.889 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -14.333 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 44.646 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 30.313 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 7.079 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 73.661 : 73.291 : -0.370 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.364 : 88.435 : 0.070 DK1 production (TWh) : 34.422 : 34.863 : 0.441 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 48.532 : 47.770 : -0.762 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 50.249 : 49.550 : -0.698 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 45.481 : 44.509 : -0.972 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -13.579 : -14.019 : -0.441 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 166.619 : 176.171 : 9.552 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 29.965 : 30.335 : 0.370 Reservoir filling (perc) : 53.864 : 54.530 : 0.665 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 63.023 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 21.026 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -65.495 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 44.219 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -8.786 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -2.472 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 56.459 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 53.987 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 8.531 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 87.893 : 86.974 : -0.918 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 87.776 : 87.846 : 0.070 DK1 production (TWh) : 23.122 : 24.110 : 0.988 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 28.414 : 27.992 : -0.422 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 29.118 : 28.757 : -0.360 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 27.042 : 26.429 : -0.613 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -1.330 : -2.318 : -0.988 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 72.544 : 81.370 : 8.826 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.599 : 0.599 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 7.874 : 7.874 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 50.682 : 51.002 : 0.320 Reservoir filling (perc) : 91.106 : 91.681 : 0.575 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 30.835 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 13.087 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -49.633 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 32.685 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -4.307 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -18.798 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 41.465 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 22.668 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 6.110 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 93.400 : 92.925 : -0.474 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 87.565 : 87.650 : 0.085 DK1 production (TWh) : 23.397 : 23.956 : 0.560 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 31.836 : 31.200 : -0.636 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 31.836 : 31.200 : -0.636 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 31.836 : 31.200 : -0.636 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 2.236 : 1.677 : -0.560 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.004 : 0.004 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 35.444 : 35.918 : 0.474 Reservoir filling (perc) : 63.714 : 64.567 : 0.853 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 56.992 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 13.727 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -73.570 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 27.618 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -2.946 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -16.579 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 38.399 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 21.821 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 7.079 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 81.504 : 81.085 : -0.419 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 89.489 : 89.592 : 0.103 DK1 production (TWh) : 27.705 : 28.226 : 0.521 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 36.685 : 35.799 : -0.887 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 36.742 : 35.849 : -0.893 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 36.553 : 35.667 : -0.886 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -6.861 : -7.382 : -0.521 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 6.624 : 6.372 : -0.252 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 30.467 : 30.885 : 0.419 Reservoir filling (perc) : 54.767 : 55.519 : 0.753 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 82.625 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 19.248 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -85.838 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 36.066 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -5.088 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -3.213 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 50.225 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 47.012 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 8.531 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 94.102 : 93.026 : -1.076 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.831 : 88.921 : 0.090 DK1 production (TWh) : 17.966 : 19.133 : 1.166 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 20.137 : 19.723 : -0.414 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 20.137 : 19.723 : -0.414 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 20.137 : 19.722 : -0.414 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 3.825 : 2.659 : -1.166 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 0.003 : 0.023 : 0.021 Overflow energy (TWh) : 2.086 : 2.891 : 0.805 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 25.640 : 34.773 : 9.133 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 50.731 : 51.002 : 0.271 Reservoir filling (perc) : 91.194 : 91.681 : 0.487 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 37.632 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 8.839 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -58.948 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 26.060 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -1.541 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -21.316 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 33.358 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 12.042 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 6.110 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 100.527 : 99.981 : -0.546 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.756 : 88.853 : 0.098 DK1 production (TWh) : 17.460 : 18.104 : 0.644 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 23.819 : 23.242 : -0.577 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 23.819 : 23.242 : -0.577 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 23.819 : 23.242 : -0.577 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 8.173 : 7.529 : -0.644 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 36.661 : 37.207 : 0.546 Reservoir filling (perc) : 65.901 : 66.884 : 0.982 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 51.568 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 12.456 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -69.173 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 20.533 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -2.217 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -17.605 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 30.773 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 13.168 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 7.079 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 88.975 : 88.488 : -0.487 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 90.648 : 90.769 : 0.121 DK1 production (TWh) : 21.392 : 22.000 : 0.608 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 28.307 : 27.467 : -0.840 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 28.333 : 27.488 : -0.845 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 28.245 : 27.408 : -0.838 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -0.548 : -1.156 : -0.608 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 3.060 : 2.815 : -0.246 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 31.340 : 31.827 : 0.487 Reservoir filling (perc) : 56.336 : 57.212 : 0.876 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 77.971 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 18.237 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -83.344 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 26.879 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -4.118 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -5.373 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 40.998 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 35.625 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 8.531 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 98.937 : 97.759 : -1.178 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 89.964 : 90.054 : 0.090 DK1 production (TWh) : 14.265 : 15.533 : 1.269 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 14.731 : 14.443 : -0.289 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 14.731 : 14.443 : -0.289 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 14.731 : 14.443 : -0.289 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 7.527 : 6.258 : -1.269 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow energy (TWh) : 5.595 : 6.503 : 0.907 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 63.474 : 72.995 : 9.520 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 50.731 : 51.002 : 0.271 Reservoir filling (perc) : 91.194 : 91.681 : 0.487 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 26.269 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 6.138 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -46.146 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 19.165 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -0.788 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -19.876 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 24.515 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 4.638 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ================================================== === Policy #2 simulation summary === ================================================== Transmission capacity (MW) : 4000 Wind production expansion factor: 50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key variable : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 50.0 50.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW): 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW): 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 4000.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total NO1 production (TWh) : 85.56 73.66 87.89 93.40 81.50 94.10 100.53 88.98 98.94 Total NO1 consumption (TWh): 86.68 88.36 87.78 87.56 89.49 88.83 88.76 90.65 89.96 Total DK1 production (TWh) : 30.36 34.42 23.12 23.40 27.70 17.97 17.46 21.39 14.26 Total DK1 consumption (TWh): 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 Average SYS price (EUR/MWh): 40.97 48.53 28.41 31.84 36.69 20.14 23.82 28.31 14.73 Average NO1 price (EUR/MWh): 41.44 50.25 29.12 31.84 36.74 20.14 23.82 28.33 14.73 Average DK1 price (EUR/MWh): 40.24 45.48 27.04 31.84 36.55 20.14 23.82 28.25 14.73 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total net export (TWh) : -4.72 -13.58 -1.33 2.24 -6.86 3.83 8.17 -0.55 7.53 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 41.85 166.62 72.54 0.00 6.62 0.00 0.00 3.06 0.00 Total overflow (MWh) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.09 0.00 0.00 5.60 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25.64 0.00 0.00 63.47 Final reserve level (TWh) : 34.94 29.96 50.68 35.44 30.47 50.73 36.66 31.34 50.73 Final reserve level (perc) : 62.81 53.86 91.11 63.71 54.77 91.19 65.90 56.34 91.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSx in NO1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CSx in DK1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Revenue hydro (mill EUR) : 3549.24 3829.23 2387.98 3095.17 3149.43 1931.32 2481.86 2613.29 1526.48 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR): 198.60 267.85 201.50 160.66 216.66 150.62 122.99 167.81 109.71 PSx thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : 151.14 194.70 96.85 85.97 111.79 46.26 51.22 72.18 25.19 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 7.637 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 85.558 : 84.453 : -1.105 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 86.683 : 86.853 : 0.170 DK1 production (TWh) : 30.356 : 31.631 : 1.275 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 40.967 : 39.505 : -1.463 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 41.437 : 40.038 : -1.400 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 40.240 : 38.581 : -1.659 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -4.723 : -5.998 : -1.275 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 41.853 : 50.921 : 9.069 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 34.941 : 36.046 : 1.105 Reservoir filling (perc) : 62.809 : 64.795 : 1.987 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 123.738 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 35.703 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -159.131 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 81.762 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -9.977 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -35.393 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 107.488 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 72.096 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 8.848 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 73.661 : 72.729 : -0.932 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.364 : 88.539 : 0.175 DK1 production (TWh) : 34.422 : 35.529 : 1.107 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 48.532 : 46.666 : -1.866 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 50.249 : 48.557 : -1.692 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 45.481 : 43.047 : -2.433 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -13.579 : -14.686 : -1.107 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 166.619 : 192.532 : 25.913 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 29.965 : 30.897 : 0.932 Reservoir filling (perc) : 53.864 : 55.540 : 1.676 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 152.531 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 52.671 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -158.531 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 104.427 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -21.779 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -6.000 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 135.319 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 129.319 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 10.663 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 87.893 : 85.568 : -2.325 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 87.776 : 87.938 : 0.162 DK1 production (TWh) : 23.122 : 25.608 : 2.486 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 28.414 : 27.426 : -0.988 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 29.118 : 28.297 : -0.820 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 27.042 : 25.534 : -1.508 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -1.330 : -3.816 : -2.486 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 72.544 : 96.567 : 24.023 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 1.598 : 1.598 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 20.455 : 20.455 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 50.682 : 51.409 : 0.726 Reservoir filling (perc) : 91.106 : 92.412 : 1.306 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 69.726 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 32.291 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -115.153 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 76.800 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -10.972 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -45.427 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 98.119 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 52.693 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 7.637 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 93.400 : 92.192 : -1.207 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 87.565 : 87.779 : 0.214 DK1 production (TWh) : 23.397 : 24.819 : 1.422 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 31.836 : 30.267 : -1.570 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 31.836 : 30.267 : -1.569 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 31.836 : 30.266 : -1.571 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 2.236 : 0.815 : -1.422 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.042 : 0.042 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 35.444 : 36.651 : 1.207 Reservoir filling (perc) : 63.714 : 65.884 : 2.170 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 140.725 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 33.888 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -181.487 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 66.389 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -7.157 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -40.762 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 93.120 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 52.358 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 8.848 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 81.504 : 80.441 : -1.063 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 89.489 : 89.748 : 0.258 DK1 production (TWh) : 27.705 : 29.026 : 1.322 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 36.685 : 34.499 : -2.186 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 36.742 : 34.545 : -2.197 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 36.553 : 34.355 : -2.198 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -6.861 : -8.183 : -1.322 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 6.624 : 6.652 : 0.028 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 30.467 : 31.530 : 1.063 Reservoir filling (perc) : 54.767 : 56.678 : 1.911 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 203.405 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 47.748 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -211.072 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 85.664 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -12.358 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -7.667 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 121.055 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 113.387 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 10.663 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 94.102 : 91.399 : -2.703 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.831 : 89.053 : 0.223 DK1 production (TWh) : 17.966 : 20.892 : 2.926 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 20.137 : 19.132 : -1.005 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 20.137 : 19.135 : -1.002 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 20.137 : 19.116 : -1.021 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 3.825 : 0.900 : -2.926 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 0.003 : 0.667 : 0.664 Overflow energy (TWh) : 2.086 : 4.111 : 2.025 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 25.640 : 48.532 : 22.892 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 50.731 : 51.409 : 0.677 Reservoir filling (perc) : 91.194 : 92.412 : 1.218 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 91.317 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 21.724 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -142.918 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 62.514 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -3.872 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -51.600 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 80.366 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 28.766 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 7.637 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 100.527 : 99.137 : -1.390 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.756 : 89.001 : 0.246 DK1 production (TWh) : 17.460 : 19.096 : 1.636 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 23.819 : 22.402 : -1.417 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 23.819 : 22.403 : -1.417 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 23.819 : 22.402 : -1.418 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 8.173 : 6.538 : -1.636 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.033 : 0.033 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 36.661 : 38.051 : 1.390 Reservoir filling (perc) : 65.901 : 68.400 : 2.498 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 126.639 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 30.580 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -169.832 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 49.007 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -5.340 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -43.192 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 74.247 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 31.055 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 8.848 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 88.975 : 87.735 : -1.240 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 90.648 : 90.952 : 0.304 DK1 production (TWh) : 21.392 : 22.937 : 1.545 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 28.307 : 26.244 : -2.063 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 28.333 : 26.263 : -2.070 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 28.245 : 26.180 : -2.066 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -0.548 : -2.093 : -1.545 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 3.060 : 2.902 : -0.158 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 31.340 : 32.580 : 1.240 Reservoir filling (perc) : 56.336 : 58.566 : 2.230 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 191.321 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 44.975 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -204.439 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 63.253 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -9.922 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -13.118 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 98.306 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 85.188 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 10.663 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 4000.000 : 4000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 98.937 : 95.963 : -2.974 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 89.964 : 90.181 : 0.217 DK1 production (TWh) : 14.265 : 17.455 : 3.191 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 14.731 : 14.053 : -0.678 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 14.731 : 14.053 : -0.678 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 14.731 : 14.053 : -0.678 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 7.527 : 4.336 : -3.191 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow energy (TWh) : 5.595 : 7.892 : 2.296 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 63.474 : 87.102 : 23.627 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 50.731 : 51.409 : 0.677 Reservoir filling (perc) : 91.194 : 92.412 : 1.218 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 62.520 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 14.485 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -110.344 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 46.498 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -1.871 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -47.824 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 59.112 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 11.289 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Simulation completed in 195.13 seconds.