+------------------------------------------------------------+ | CJ_SIM_MODEL: NO1/DK1 Market equilibrium simulation model | +------------------------------------------------------------+ ================================================== === Simulation parameters === ================================================== EU ETS Carbon price (EUR/t): 20.00 Brent oil price (EUR/b)) : 60.00 Coal price (EUR/t) : 60.00 Norwegian IPI : 100 Reservoir capacity (TWh) : 55.630 Transmission capacity (MW) : 1000 ================================================== === Estimated parameters === ================================================== -------------------------------------------------- -- NO1 production functions -- -------------------------------------------------- ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ Hour| const | prod | rel_res | oilp | co2p | co2d | trend | tsin | tcos | ipi | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1 : -8.1906 | 0.3342 | -2.9211 | 1.5971 | 0.2312 | -0.8046 | -0.0007 | 0.2495 | 0.2828 | 0.8328 | 2 : -9.2731 | 0.4303 | -3.0926 | 1.6636 | 0.2367 | -0.8473 | -0.0008 | 0.2586 | 0.2824 | 0.8389 | 3 : -10.1544 | 0.5067 | -3.2268 | 1.7113 | 0.2379 | -0.8663 | -0.0008 | 0.2664 | 0.2830 | 0.8514 | 4 : -10.7234 | 0.5655 | -3.3411 | 1.7363 | 0.2403 | -0.8916 | -0.0008 | 0.2735 | 0.2874 | 0.8458 | 5 : -10.8040 | 0.5231 | -3.3271 | 1.7966 | 0.2108 | -0.8154 | -0.0008 | 0.2771 | 0.3004 | 0.9030 | 6 : -9.9451 | 0.4559 | -3.2281 | 1.7138 | 0.2199 | -0.8226 | -0.0008 | 0.2711 | 0.2994 | 0.9062 | 7 : -9.4669 | 0.4506 | -3.1469 | 1.6678 | 0.2006 | -0.7485 | -0.0008 | 0.2636 | 0.2937 | 0.8343 | 8 : -8.3987 | 0.3703 | -2.9080 | 1.5954 | 0.1722 | -0.6104 | -0.0007 | 0.2589 | 0.2962 | 0.7974 | 9 : -8.2611 | 0.3780 | -2.7969 | 1.5507 | 0.1520 | -0.5184 | -0.0007 | 0.2562 | 0.2867 | 0.7872 | 10 : -7.7727 | 0.3431 | -2.7467 | 1.5080 | 0.1655 | -0.5589 | -0.0007 | 0.2495 | 0.2799 | 0.7763 | 11 : -7.1537 | 0.2996 | -2.7063 | 1.4636 | 0.1915 | -0.6291 | -0.0007 | 0.2435 | 0.2796 | 0.7560 | 12 : -6.6934 | 0.2522 | -2.6956 | 1.4491 | 0.2134 | -0.6897 | -0.0007 | 0.2426 | 0.2865 | 0.7595 | 13 : -6.6247 | 0.2414 | -2.6948 | 1.4520 | 0.2211 | -0.7147 | -0.0007 | 0.2417 | 0.2874 | 0.7630 | 14 : -6.7828 | 0.2573 | -2.7171 | 1.4537 | 0.2315 | -0.7493 | -0.0007 | 0.2403 | 0.2873 | 0.7645 | 15 : -6.8001 | 0.2577 | -2.7352 | 1.4719 | 0.2388 | -0.7750 | -0.0007 | 0.2418 | 0.2911 | 0.7548 | 16 : -6.8125 | 0.2649 | -2.7577 | 1.4532 | 0.2524 | -0.8115 | -0.0007 | 0.2417 | 0.2959 | 0.7573 | 17 : -6.7122 | 0.2667 | -2.7615 | 1.4315 | 0.2617 | -0.8300 | -0.0007 | 0.2412 | 0.3006 | 0.7489 | 18 : -6.5649 | 0.2545 | -2.7496 | 1.4081 | 0.2443 | -0.7705 | -0.0007 | 0.2438 | 0.3052 | 0.7594 | 19 : -6.5906 | 0.2156 | -2.7119 | 1.4742 | 0.1910 | -0.6217 | -0.0007 | 0.2480 | 0.3078 | 0.7964 | 20 : -6.5754 | 0.1883 | -2.6992 | 1.5044 | 0.1892 | -0.6229 | -0.0007 | 0.2473 | 0.3082 | 0.8254 | 21 : -6.4344 | 0.1730 | -2.6978 | 1.5033 | 0.2102 | -0.6883 | -0.0007 | 0.2466 | 0.3066 | 0.8247 | 22 : -6.3843 | 0.1828 | -2.7039 | 1.4971 | 0.2165 | -0.7088 | -0.0007 | 0.2471 | 0.3016 | 0.7984 | 23 : -6.7069 | 0.1876 | -2.7436 | 1.5231 | 0.2283 | -0.7495 | -0.0007 | 0.2523 | 0.3018 | 0.8443 | 24 : -8.0383 | 0.3001 | -2.8834 | 1.5915 | 0.2357 | -0.8108 | -0.0007 | 0.2547 | 0.2931 | 0.8700 | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ -------------------------------------------------- -- NO1 consumption functions -- -------------------------------------------------- ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ Hour| const | price | hdegree | hdegre2 | dsumm | dwkday | oilp | trend | tsin | tcos | ipi | dlength | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1 : 8.1180 | -0.0453 | -0.0917 | 0.0539 | -0.0022 | 0.0070 | 0.1732 | -0.0001 | 0.0712 | 0.1046 | 0.1294 | -0.0675 | 2 : 8.0208 | -0.0446 | -0.1035 | 0.0567 | -0.0014 | 0.0077 | 0.1820 | -0.0001 | 0.0691 | 0.1346 | 0.1206 | -0.0325 | 3 : 7.9452 | -0.0422 | -0.1093 | 0.0576 | -0.0035 | 0.0111 | 0.1837 | -0.0001 | 0.0667 | 0.1615 | 0.1120 | 0.0041 | 4 : 7.8707 | -0.0419 | -0.1228 | 0.0600 | -0.0048 | 0.0177 | 0.1845 | -0.0001 | 0.0659 | 0.1857 | 0.1119 | 0.0358 | 5 : 7.7803 | -0.0433 | -0.1262 | 0.0604 | -0.0116 | 0.0306 | 0.1937 | -0.0001 | 0.0596 | 0.2349 | 0.0894 | 0.1028 | 6 : 7.4102 | -0.0489 | -0.1220 | 0.0594 | -0.0116 | 0.0587 | 0.2081 | -0.0001 | 0.0613 | 0.2411 | 0.1663 | 0.1014 | 7 : 7.2321 | -0.0464 | -0.0991 | 0.0540 | -0.0192 | 0.1296 | 0.1995 | -0.0001 | 0.0658 | 0.2169 | 0.2274 | 0.0647 | 8 : 7.3351 | -0.0449 | -0.0730 | 0.0485 | -0.0412 | 0.2098 | 0.1901 | -0.0001 | 0.0682 | 0.1677 | 0.2468 | 0.0027 | 9 : 7.6297 | -0.0468 | -0.0689 | 0.0482 | -0.0466 | 0.2043 | 0.1848 | -0.0001 | 0.0714 | 0.1270 | 0.2220 | -0.0455 | 10 : 7.8436 | -0.0471 | -0.0609 | 0.0477 | -0.0429 | 0.1579 | 0.1797 | -0.0001 | 0.0650 | 0.1178 | 0.1773 | -0.0291 | 11 : 8.0428 | -0.0458 | -0.0558 | 0.0466 | -0.0373 | 0.1243 | 0.1645 | -0.0001 | 0.0615 | 0.1037 | 0.1564 | -0.0424 | 12 : 8.1422 | -0.0461 | -0.0502 | 0.0457 | -0.0380 | 0.1082 | 0.1602 | -0.0001 | 0.0600 | 0.0920 | 0.1480 | -0.0578 | 13 : 8.1427 | -0.0489 | -0.0480 | 0.0454 | -0.0389 | 0.1076 | 0.1651 | -0.0001 | 0.0608 | 0.0828 | 0.1534 | -0.0727 | 14 : 8.1643 | -0.0484 | -0.0418 | 0.0437 | -0.0405 | 0.1124 | 0.1621 | -0.0001 | 0.0599 | 0.0734 | 0.1569 | -0.0894 | 15 : 8.1766 | -0.0466 | -0.0389 | 0.0429 | -0.0425 | 0.1149 | 0.1657 | -0.0001 | 0.0614 | 0.0695 | 0.1558 | -0.1022 | 16 : 8.2812 | -0.0448 | -0.0328 | 0.0411 | -0.0400 | 0.1100 | 0.1575 | -0.0001 | 0.0634 | 0.0513 | 0.1626 | -0.1514 | 17 : 8.3430 | -0.0466 | -0.0297 | 0.0405 | -0.0381 | 0.1020 | 0.1649 | -0.0001 | 0.0653 | 0.0325 | 0.1771 | -0.2096 | 18 : 8.1532 | -0.0450 | -0.0369 | 0.0428 | -0.0319 | 0.0875 | 0.1549 | -0.0001 | 0.0583 | 0.0842 | 0.1789 | -0.1208 | 19 : 7.8591 | -0.0478 | -0.0386 | 0.0442 | -0.0286 | 0.0750 | 0.1594 | -0.0001 | 0.0471 | 0.1515 | 0.1702 | 0.0144 | 20 : 7.6882 | -0.0481 | -0.0337 | 0.0422 | -0.0290 | 0.0686 | 0.1619 | -0.0001 | 0.0397 | 0.1914 | 0.1592 | 0.0968 | 21 : 7.6348 | -0.0494 | -0.0300 | 0.0393 | -0.0338 | 0.0640 | 0.1743 | -0.0001 | 0.0419 | 0.1932 | 0.1578 | 0.1043 | 22 : 7.8965 | -0.0490 | -0.0335 | 0.0401 | -0.0410 | 0.0580 | 0.1828 | -0.0001 | 0.0476 | 0.1669 | 0.1122 | 0.0637 | 23 : 8.2165 | -0.0454 | -0.0500 | 0.0438 | -0.0308 | 0.0444 | 0.1733 | -0.0000 | 0.0555 | 0.1379 | 0.0663 | 0.0163 | 24 : 8.1998 | -0.0464 | -0.0735 | 0.0485 | -0.0058 | 0.0279 | 0.1738 | -0.0000 | 0.0705 | 0.0966 | 0.1126 | -0.0710 | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ -------------------------------------------------- -- DK1 production functions -- -------------------------------------------------- ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ Hour| const | prod | coalp | co2p | co2d | trend | tsin | tcos | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1 : -4.9213 | 0.9947 | 0.3857 | 0.4566 | -0.8224 | -0.0007 | -0.1195 | -0.3114 | 2 : -6.6574 | 1.1489 | 0.5881 | 0.4970 | -0.8532 | -0.0008 | -0.1111 | -0.3399 | 3 : -7.5355 | 1.2407 | 0.6618 | 0.4687 | -0.7039 | -0.0009 | -0.0661 | -0.3765 | 4 : -8.9552 | 1.4372 | 0.6781 | 0.4298 | -0.5293 | -0.0010 | -0.0739 | -0.4339 | 5 : -10.5965 | 1.6241 | 0.7580 | 0.4987 | -0.7385 | -0.0010 | -0.0987 | -0.4749 | 6 : -10.8401 | 1.5622 | 0.9018 | 0.4786 | -0.6962 | -0.0009 | -0.1111 | -0.4286 | 7 : -10.7858 | 1.5504 | 0.8056 | 0.3053 | -0.2711 | -0.0007 | -0.1708 | -0.4047 | 8 : -9.0874 | 1.2297 | 0.9138 | 0.2484 | -0.0244 | -0.0006 | -0.1925 | -0.2404 | 9 : -6.4315 | 0.9248 | 0.8158 | 0.2882 | -0.1713 | -0.0005 | -0.1307 | -0.1402 | 10 : -5.6301 | 0.8153 | 0.8323 | 0.3451 | -0.3093 | -0.0005 | -0.1390 | -0.1207 | 11 : -5.1647 | 0.7533 | 0.8288 | 0.3560 | -0.3084 | -0.0005 | -0.1604 | -0.1205 | 12 : -5.2733 | 0.7535 | 0.8708 | 0.3781 | -0.3246 | -0.0006 | -0.1802 | -0.1501 | 13 : -4.3155 | 0.6863 | 0.7494 | 0.4291 | -0.5384 | -0.0005 | -0.1694 | -0.1389 | 14 : -4.6257 | 0.7386 | 0.7263 | 0.4282 | -0.5486 | -0.0005 | -0.1695 | -0.1524 | 15 : -5.0206 | 0.8065 | 0.6915 | 0.3962 | -0.4678 | -0.0005 | -0.1772 | -0.1815 | 16 : -5.2807 | 0.8200 | 0.7419 | 0.3867 | -0.4245 | -0.0006 | -0.1920 | -0.1757 | 17 : -5.3329 | 0.8032 | 0.7893 | 0.4470 | -0.6241 | -0.0006 | -0.2077 | -0.1446 | 18 : -3.7206 | 0.6189 | 0.7323 | 0.4870 | -0.7881 | -0.0005 | -0.1832 | -0.0239 | 19 : -3.1509 | 0.5123 | 0.8106 | 0.4219 | -0.5415 | -0.0005 | -0.1731 | -0.0006 | 20 : -2.6527 | 0.4552 | 0.7899 | 0.4224 | -0.5366 | -0.0005 | -0.1862 | -0.0118 | 21 : -2.2104 | 0.4223 | 0.7474 | 0.4781 | -0.7158 | -0.0006 | -0.1717 | -0.0360 | 22 : -2.6464 | 0.4866 | 0.7441 | 0.4764 | -0.7185 | -0.0006 | -0.1380 | -0.0827 | 23 : -1.5719 | 0.3680 | 0.7018 | 0.5111 | -0.8472 | -0.0006 | -0.1060 | -0.0566 | 24 : -2.0504 | 0.5018 | 0.5854 | 0.4432 | -0.7114 | -0.0007 | -0.0667 | -0.1136 | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ -------------------------------------------------- -- DK1 consumption functions -- -------------------------------------------------- ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ Hour| const | hdegree | hdegre2 | dwkday | dksumm | trend | tsin | tcos | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ 1 : 7.4905 | -0.0711 | 0.0251 | 0.0964 | -0.0329 | 0.0000 | 0.0198 | 0.0352 | 2 : 7.4403 | -0.0765 | 0.0270 | 0.1096 | -0.0368 | 0.0000 | 0.0204 | 0.0351 | 3 : 7.4144 | -0.0794 | 0.0281 | 0.1246 | -0.0382 | 0.0000 | 0.0209 | 0.0351 | 4 : 7.3992 | -0.0840 | 0.0297 | 0.1391 | -0.0413 | 0.0000 | 0.0208 | 0.0349 | 5 : 7.3864 | -0.0800 | 0.0290 | 0.1601 | -0.0387 | 0.0000 | 0.0187 | 0.0425 | 6 : 7.4022 | -0.0837 | 0.0305 | 0.2105 | -0.0609 | 0.0000 | 0.0115 | 0.0525 | 7 : 7.4467 | -0.0699 | 0.0281 | 0.3236 | -0.0881 | 0.0000 | -0.0013 | 0.0621 | 8 : 7.5392 | -0.0523 | 0.0228 | 0.4151 | -0.0879 | 0.0000 | -0.0014 | 0.0717 | 9 : 7.6387 | -0.0450 | 0.0194 | 0.3831 | -0.0713 | 0.0000 | 0.0063 | 0.0685 | 10 : 7.6782 | -0.0428 | 0.0205 | 0.3304 | -0.0543 | 0.0000 | 0.0054 | 0.0537 | 11 : 7.6891 | -0.0377 | 0.0199 | 0.3255 | -0.0475 | 0.0000 | 0.0037 | 0.0451 | 12 : 7.6870 | -0.0365 | 0.0198 | 0.3186 | -0.0438 | 0.0000 | 0.0030 | 0.0419 | 13 : 7.6535 | -0.0328 | 0.0192 | 0.3094 | -0.0393 | 0.0000 | 0.0003 | 0.0377 | 14 : 7.6340 | -0.0326 | 0.0186 | 0.3315 | -0.0417 | 0.0000 | -0.0014 | 0.0383 | 15 : 7.6177 | -0.0332 | 0.0193 | 0.3178 | -0.0386 | 0.0000 | -0.0037 | 0.0428 | 16 : 7.6079 | -0.0365 | 0.0210 | 0.2756 | -0.0317 | 0.0000 | -0.0069 | 0.0567 | 17 : 7.6461 | -0.0370 | 0.0229 | 0.2320 | -0.0280 | 0.0000 | -0.0166 | 0.0858 | 18 : 7.7442 | -0.0373 | 0.0233 | 0.1964 | -0.0289 | 0.0000 | -0.0153 | 0.1062 | 19 : 7.7494 | -0.0396 | 0.0235 | 0.1656 | -0.0263 | 0.0000 | -0.0073 | 0.1038 | 20 : 7.6737 | -0.0353 | 0.0227 | 0.1700 | -0.0468 | 0.0000 | -0.0146 | 0.0881 | 21 : 7.6330 | -0.0400 | 0.0227 | 0.1601 | -0.0645 | 0.0000 | -0.0154 | 0.0696 | 22 : 7.6054 | -0.0395 | 0.0204 | 0.1544 | -0.0501 | 0.0000 | -0.0032 | 0.0576 | 23 : 7.5868 | -0.0539 | 0.0220 | 0.1401 | -0.0321 | 0.0000 | 0.0105 | 0.0406 | 24 : 7.5406 | -0.0683 | 0.0254 | 0.1176 | -0.0318 | 0.0000 | 0.0167 | 0.0311 | ----+----------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+ ================================================== === Baseline simulation summary === ================================================== ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key variable : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 50.0 50.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW): 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW): 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total NO1 production (TWh) : 86.64 78.57 88.73 92.62 83.87 92.47 97.80 89.81 96.10 Total NO1 consumption (TWh): 85.56 86.19 86.67 87.61 88.97 88.72 89.33 90.73 90.08 Total DK1 production (TWh) : 28.15 27.34 21.17 24.22 24.81 19.48 20.77 20.64 17.22 Total DK1 consumption (TWh): 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 Average SYS price (EUR/MWh): 52.46 70.91 36.70 31.61 40.56 20.88 20.90 27.64 14.46 Average NO1 price (EUR/MWh): 59.19 95.70 42.38 31.72 42.02 21.08 20.69 27.95 14.39 Average DK1 price (EUR/MWh): 38.65 37.15 26.05 33.42 33.28 23.35 28.68 27.66 20.22 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total net export (TWh) : -2.52 -6.49 0.62 1.41 -3.97 2.31 4.86 0.21 4.57 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 215.70 513.95 195.99 50.92 92.44 64.60 77.85 48.80 56.78 Total overflow (MWh) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.12 0.00 0.00 7.84 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.71 0.00 0.00 86.76 Final reserve level (TWh) : 33.86 25.05 49.84 36.23 28.10 51.32 39.39 30.51 51.32 Final reserve level (perc) : 60.87 45.03 89.60 65.12 50.51 92.26 70.81 54.84 92.26 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSx in NO1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CSx in DK1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Revenue hydro (mill EUR) : 5303.10 7885.50 3815.65 3068.41 3742.69 2019.36 2106.91 2634.58 1454.95 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR): 183.02 202.68 170.57 160.80 184.03 152.73 138.07 152.34 129.28 PSx thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : 88.58 68.30 38.59 65.16 58.60 30.28 40.35 44.41 23.29 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ================================================== === Policy #1 simulation summary === ================================================== Transmission capacity (MW) : 1000 Wind production expansion factor: 20 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key variable : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 50.0 50.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW): 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW): 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total NO1 production (TWh) : 86.64 78.57 88.73 92.62 83.87 92.47 97.80 89.81 96.10 Total NO1 consumption (TWh): 85.56 86.19 86.67 87.61 88.97 88.72 89.33 90.73 90.08 Total DK1 production (TWh) : 28.15 27.34 21.17 24.22 24.81 19.48 20.77 20.64 17.22 Total DK1 consumption (TWh): 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 Average SYS price (EUR/MWh): 52.46 70.91 36.70 31.61 40.56 20.88 20.90 27.64 14.46 Average NO1 price (EUR/MWh): 59.19 95.70 42.38 31.72 42.02 21.08 20.69 27.95 14.39 Average DK1 price (EUR/MWh): 38.65 37.15 26.05 33.42 33.28 23.35 28.68 27.66 20.22 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total net export (TWh) : -2.52 -6.49 0.62 1.41 -3.97 2.31 4.86 0.21 4.57 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 215.70 513.95 195.99 50.92 92.44 64.60 77.85 48.80 56.78 Total overflow (MWh) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.12 0.00 0.00 7.84 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.71 0.00 0.00 86.76 Final reserve level (TWh) : 33.86 25.05 49.84 36.23 28.10 51.32 39.39 30.51 51.32 Final reserve level (perc) : 60.87 45.03 89.60 65.12 50.51 92.26 70.81 54.84 92.26 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSx in NO1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CSx in DK1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Revenue hydro (mill EUR) : 5303.10 7885.50 3815.65 3068.41 3742.69 2019.36 2106.91 2634.58 1454.95 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR): 183.02 202.68 170.57 160.80 184.03 152.73 138.07 152.34 129.28 PSx thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : 88.58 68.30 38.59 65.16 58.60 30.28 40.35 44.41 23.29 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 6.110 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 86.636 : 86.409 : -0.227 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 85.556 : 85.582 : 0.026 DK1 production (TWh) : 28.152 : 28.406 : 0.253 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 52.465 : 52.092 : -0.373 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 59.193 : 58.973 : -0.220 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 38.655 : 37.573 : -1.082 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -2.518 : -2.771 : -0.253 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 215.699 : 219.162 : 3.463 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 33.863 : 34.090 : 0.227 Reservoir filling (perc) : 60.872 : 61.280 : 0.408 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 19.058 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 23.276 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -27.653 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 25.464 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -5.207 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -8.595 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 43.534 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 34.939 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 7.079 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 78.574 : 78.420 : -0.154 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 86.193 : 86.214 : 0.021 DK1 production (TWh) : 27.338 : 27.513 : 0.174 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 70.913 : 70.292 : -0.621 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 95.701 : 95.414 : -0.287 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 37.147 : 35.710 : -1.437 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -6.495 : -6.670 : -0.175 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 513.947 : 523.766 : 9.819 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 25.052 : 25.206 : 0.154 Reservoir filling (perc) : 45.033 : 45.310 : 0.277 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 27.523 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 30.071 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -31.952 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 23.699 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -6.399 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -4.429 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 47.372 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 42.943 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 8.531 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 88.731 : 88.274 : -0.457 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 86.666 : 86.709 : 0.043 DK1 production (TWh) : 21.173 : 21.673 : 0.500 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 36.700 : 36.310 : -0.390 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 42.383 : 42.192 : -0.191 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 26.048 : 24.687 : -1.361 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 0.618 : 0.119 : -0.500 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 195.994 : 199.179 : 3.185 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 49.844 : 50.301 : 0.457 Reservoir filling (perc) : 89.600 : 90.421 : 0.821 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 15.998 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 30.596 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -25.631 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 15.907 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -3.825 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -9.633 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 42.678 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 33.044 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 6.110 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 92.615 : 92.336 : -0.279 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 87.607 : 87.653 : 0.047 DK1 production (TWh) : 24.223 : 24.550 : 0.326 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 31.606 : 31.215 : -0.392 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 31.717 : 31.373 : -0.344 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 33.421 : 32.401 : -1.020 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 1.410 : 1.085 : -0.326 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 50.920 : 50.625 : -0.295 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 36.228 : 36.507 : 0.279 Reservoir filling (perc) : 65.123 : 65.625 : 0.502 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 30.485 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 21.936 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -40.874 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 21.880 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -3.843 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -10.389 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 39.974 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 29.584 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 7.079 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 83.873 : 83.624 : -0.249 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.965 : 89.008 : 0.043 DK1 production (TWh) : 24.811 : 25.103 : 0.291 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 40.557 : 40.050 : -0.507 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 42.020 : 41.588 : -0.432 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 33.284 : 32.008 : -1.276 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -3.968 : -4.259 : -0.292 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 92.443 : 98.446 : 6.003 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 28.098 : 28.347 : 0.249 Reservoir filling (perc) : 50.508 : 50.956 : 0.448 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 40.375 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 26.671 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -46.195 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 22.071 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -5.445 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -5.819 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 43.297 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 37.478 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 8.531 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 92.474 : 91.917 : -0.556 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.716 : 88.749 : 0.033 DK1 production (TWh) : 19.480 : 20.070 : 0.590 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 20.875 : 20.668 : -0.207 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 21.077 : 20.936 : -0.141 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 23.345 : 22.067 : -1.278 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 2.311 : 1.721 : -0.590 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 64.596 : 64.100 : -0.496 Overflow energy (TWh) : 3.122 : 3.547 : 0.425 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 37.714 : 42.448 : 4.734 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 51.324 : 51.456 : 0.132 Reservoir filling (perc) : 92.260 : 92.496 : 0.237 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 11.883 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 28.820 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -21.698 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 14.110 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -3.135 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -9.815 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 39.794 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 29.980 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 6.110 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 97.797 : 97.512 : -0.285 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 89.334 : 89.381 : 0.047 DK1 production (TWh) : 20.769 : 21.101 : 0.332 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 20.897 : 20.628 : -0.270 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 20.691 : 20.454 : -0.236 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 28.677 : 27.657 : -1.021 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 4.865 : 4.533 : -0.332 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 77.850 : 73.406 : -4.444 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 39.391 : 39.676 : 0.285 Reservoir filling (perc) : 70.808 : 71.321 : 0.512 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 21.043 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 23.227 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -28.585 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 17.191 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -2.416 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -7.543 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 38.001 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 30.459 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 7.079 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 89.807 : 89.438 : -0.369 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 90.726 : 90.808 : 0.082 DK1 production (TWh) : 20.638 : 21.088 : 0.450 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 27.639 : 27.040 : -0.600 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 27.946 : 27.369 : -0.577 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 27.661 : 26.548 : -1.113 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 0.205 : -0.245 : -0.450 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 48.802 : 49.896 : 1.094 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 30.508 : 30.877 : 0.369 Reservoir filling (perc) : 54.841 : 55.504 : 0.663 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 53.504 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 23.612 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -60.547 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 18.372 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -4.163 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -7.043 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 37.821 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 30.778 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 8.531 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 96.097 : 95.397 : -0.700 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 90.079 : 90.130 : 0.050 DK1 production (TWh) : 17.220 : 17.971 : 0.750 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 14.464 : 14.283 : -0.181 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 14.389 : 14.237 : -0.153 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 20.225 : 19.113 : -1.111 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 4.571 : 3.821 : -0.751 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 56.776 : 52.290 : -4.486 Overflow energy (TWh) : 7.843 : 8.411 : 0.569 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 86.757 : 92.361 : 5.604 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 51.324 : 51.456 : 0.132 Reservoir filling (perc) : 92.260 : 92.496 : 0.237 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 14.253 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 25.093 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -25.187 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 12.444 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -2.051 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -10.934 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 35.486 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 24.552 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ================================================== === Policy #2 simulation summary === ================================================== Transmission capacity (MW) : 1000 Wind production expansion factor: 50 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Key variable : 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 50.0 50.0 65.0 65.0 65.0 80.0 80.0 80.0 Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 92.68 75.81 110.76 Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 5.09 5.90 7.11 Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 3.60 -1.12 1.45 Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 4.22 -0.74 0.37 Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW): 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW): 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 1000.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total NO1 production (TWh) : 86.64 78.57 88.73 92.62 83.87 92.47 97.80 89.81 96.10 Total NO1 consumption (TWh): 85.56 86.19 86.67 87.61 88.97 88.72 89.33 90.73 90.08 Total DK1 production (TWh) : 28.15 27.34 21.17 24.22 24.81 19.48 20.77 20.64 17.22 Total DK1 consumption (TWh): 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 21.42 21.58 21.42 Average SYS price (EUR/MWh): 52.46 70.91 36.70 31.61 40.56 20.88 20.90 27.64 14.46 Average NO1 price (EUR/MWh): 59.19 95.70 42.38 31.72 42.02 21.08 20.69 27.95 14.39 Average DK1 price (EUR/MWh): 38.65 37.15 26.05 33.42 33.28 23.35 28.68 27.66 20.22 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Total net export (TWh) : -2.52 -6.49 0.62 1.41 -3.97 2.31 4.86 0.21 4.57 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 215.70 513.95 195.99 50.92 92.44 64.60 77.85 48.80 56.78 Total overflow (MWh) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.12 0.00 0.00 7.84 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.71 0.00 0.00 86.76 Final reserve level (TWh) : 33.86 25.05 49.84 36.23 28.10 51.32 39.39 30.51 51.32 Final reserve level (perc) : 60.87 45.03 89.60 65.12 50.51 92.26 70.81 54.84 92.26 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CSx in NO1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 CSx in DK1 (mill EUR) : 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Revenue hydro (mill EUR) : 5303.10 7885.50 3815.65 3068.41 3742.69 2019.36 2106.91 2634.58 1454.95 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR): 183.02 202.68 170.57 160.80 184.03 152.73 138.07 152.34 129.28 PSx thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : 88.58 68.30 38.59 65.16 58.60 30.28 40.35 44.41 23.29 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 7.637 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 86.636 : 86.059 : -0.577 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 85.556 : 85.620 : 0.064 DK1 production (TWh) : 28.152 : 28.795 : 0.643 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 52.465 : 51.538 : -0.927 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 59.193 : 58.655 : -0.538 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 38.655 : 35.970 : -2.685 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -2.518 : -3.159 : -0.641 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 215.699 : 225.583 : 9.884 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 33.863 : 34.440 : 0.577 Reservoir filling (perc) : 60.872 : 61.908 : 1.036 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 46.923 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 57.690 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -67.970 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 56.835 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -12.128 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -21.048 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 102.397 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 81.350 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 8.848 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 78.574 : 78.225 : -0.349 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 86.193 : 86.241 : 0.048 DK1 production (TWh) : 27.338 : 27.763 : 0.424 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 70.913 : 69.399 : -1.515 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 95.701 : 95.056 : -0.645 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 37.147 : 33.500 : -3.646 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -6.495 : -6.891 : -0.397 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 513.947 : 539.734 : 25.787 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 25.052 : 25.401 : 0.349 Reservoir filling (perc) : 45.033 : 45.660 : 0.627 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 61.838 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 76.954 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -71.814 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 47.208 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -14.351 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -9.975 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 109.811 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 99.836 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #1-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 50.0 : 50.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 10.663 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 88.731 : 87.563 : -1.167 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 86.666 : 86.773 : 0.108 DK1 production (TWh) : 21.173 : 22.480 : 1.307 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 36.700 : 35.726 : -0.974 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 42.383 : 41.915 : -0.468 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 26.048 : 22.699 : -3.348 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 0.618 : -0.656 : -1.275 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 195.994 : 206.761 : 10.767 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 49.844 : 51.012 : 1.167 Reservoir filling (perc) : 89.600 : 91.698 : 2.098 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 39.458 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 74.861 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -63.441 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 28.533 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -8.536 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -23.983 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 94.857 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 70.874 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 7.637 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 92.615 : 91.884 : -0.731 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 87.607 : 87.725 : 0.118 DK1 production (TWh) : 24.223 : 25.075 : 0.851 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 31.606 : 30.634 : -0.972 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 31.717 : 30.865 : -0.852 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 33.421 : 30.924 : -2.497 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 1.410 : 0.561 : -0.849 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 50.920 : 51.767 : 0.846 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 36.228 : 36.960 : 0.731 Reservoir filling (perc) : 65.123 : 66.438 : 1.315 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 75.476 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 53.490 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -101.748 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 49.025 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -9.060 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -26.272 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 93.455 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 67.183 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 8.848 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 83.873 : 83.275 : -0.598 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.965 : 89.064 : 0.099 DK1 production (TWh) : 24.811 : 25.536 : 0.725 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 40.557 : 39.356 : -1.201 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 42.020 : 41.026 : -0.994 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 33.284 : 30.061 : -3.223 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : -3.968 : -4.665 : -0.697 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 92.443 : 109.097 : 16.653 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 28.098 : 28.696 : 0.598 Reservoir filling (perc) : 50.508 : 51.583 : 1.075 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 93.104 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 67.723 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -106.909 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 44.905 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -12.279 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -13.806 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 100.349 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 86.543 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #2-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 65.0 : 65.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 10.663 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 92.474 : 91.053 : -1.420 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 88.716 : 88.794 : 0.078 DK1 production (TWh) : 19.480 : 21.011 : 1.531 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 20.875 : 20.381 : -0.494 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 21.077 : 20.754 : -0.323 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 23.345 : 20.229 : -3.116 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 2.311 : 0.813 : -1.499 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 64.596 : 67.012 : 2.416 Overflow energy (TWh) : 3.122 : 4.207 : 1.085 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 37.714 : 49.774 : 12.060 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 51.324 : 51.659 : 0.335 Reservoir filling (perc) : 92.260 : 92.862 : 0.602 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 26.944 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 69.954 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -51.114 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 25.555 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -7.011 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -24.170 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 88.498 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 64.328 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-1 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 92.684 : 92.684 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.092 : 7.637 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 3.598 : 3.598 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 4.217 : 4.217 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 97.797 : 97.044 : -0.753 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 89.334 : 89.455 : 0.121 DK1 production (TWh) : 20.769 : 21.645 : 0.876 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.416 : 21.416 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 20.897 : 20.213 : -0.684 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 20.691 : 20.088 : -0.602 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 28.677 : 26.173 : -2.505 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 4.865 : 3.991 : -0.874 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 77.850 : 68.427 : -9.423 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 39.391 : 40.144 : 0.753 Reservoir filling (perc) : 70.808 : 72.163 : 1.354 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 53.774 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 56.646 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -73.395 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 37.459 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -5.736 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -19.621 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 88.369 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 68.748 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-2 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 75.811 : 75.811 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 5.899 : 8.848 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : -1.125 : -1.125 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : -0.737 : -0.737 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 89.807 : 88.897 : -0.910 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 90.726 : 90.924 : 0.198 DK1 production (TWh) : 20.638 : 21.774 : 1.135 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.580 : 21.580 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 27.639 : 26.198 : -1.442 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 27.946 : 26.571 : -1.376 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 27.661 : 24.879 : -2.782 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 0.205 : -0.902 : -1.108 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 48.802 : 53.498 : 4.696 Overflow energy (TWh) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 0.000 : 0.000 : 0.000 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 30.508 : 31.418 : 0.910 Reservoir filling (perc) : 54.841 : 56.477 : 1.635 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 127.706 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 58.876 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -144.747 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 37.928 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -9.509 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -17.041 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 87.294 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 70.253 ------------------------------------------------------------------ ============================================= === Policy #1 welfare analysis ===== === Scenario #3-3 ===== ============================================= ------------------------------------------------------------------ Key variable : Base : Policy : Change ------------------------------------------------------------------ Initial reservoir (perc) : 80.0 : 80.0 : Total NO1 inflow (TWh) : 110.760 : 110.760 : Total DK1 wind prod (TWh) : 7.109 : 10.663 : Other NO1 net export (TWh) : 1.446 : 1.446 : Other DK1 net export (TWh) : 0.367 : 0.367 : Average NO1 -> DK1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : Average DK1 -> NO1 cap (GW) : 1000.000 : 1000.000 : ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 production (TWh) : 96.097 : 94.315 : -1.782 NO1 consumption (TWh) : 90.079 : 90.198 : 0.119 DK1 production (TWh) : 17.220 : 19.153 : 1.933 DK1 consumption (TWh) : 21.425 : 21.425 : 0.000 SYS price (EUR/MWh) : 14.464 : 14.033 : -0.431 NO1 price (EUR/MWh) : 14.389 : 14.033 : -0.356 DK1 price (EUR/MWh) : 20.225 : 17.539 : -2.686 ----------------------------------------------------------------- Net export NO1->DK1 (TWh) : 4.571 : 2.670 : -1.901 Congestion rent (mill EUR) : 56.776 : 49.753 : -7.023 Overflow energy (TWh) : 7.843 : 9.290 : 1.447 Overflow loss (mill EUR) : 86.757 : 100.762 : 14.005 Reservoir filling (TWh) : 51.324 : 51.659 : 0.335 Reservoir filling (perc) : 92.260 : 92.862 : 0.602 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Change CS in NO1 (mill EUR) : : : 33.228 Change CS in DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 59.980 Revenue hydro NO1 (mill EUR) : : : -60.340 Revenue wind DK1 (mill EUR) : : : 23.533 PS thermal DK1 (mill EUR) : : : -4.926 ------------------------------------------------------------------ NO1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : -27.111 DK1 welfare change (mill EUR): : : 78.588 Net welfare change (mill EUR): : : 51.477 ------------------------------------------------------------------ Simulation completed in 270.27 seconds.